The rupee may recover to 69.79 a dollar in the second half, down 8.3 per cent from the first half, if the RBI props it up by mobilising at least $30 billion from NRIs as it has done in 2013.
The rupee is the worst-performing emerging market currency losing over 15 per cent year-to-date, while in the first half it averaged at 68.57 to the dollar, down 8.3 per cent year-on-year, making the depreciation at a five-year high so far, says an India Ratings report.
Following the market mayhem and the rupee plunge after the Fed ‘taper tantrum’ in summer of 2013, RBI mobilised $25 billion from non-resident Indians. The move was initiated by the then governor Raghuram Rajan soon after he took over the RBI reins in September that year.
“The rupee depreciation against the dollar so far is at a five-year high. But a longer term view suggests that average depreciation during FY15-FY19 will be only 3 per cent, which is at par with the 20 years (FY1999-FY18) average depreciation,” Devendra Pant, the chief economist at the agency, said in a note Thursday.